opportunity-china.co.uk
December 2014 33
Examining how the countrymanages to remain self-
sufficient in agriculture, and the challenges that it
faces regarding food security.
C
hina relies on 7 percent of theworld’s arable land
to feed 22 percent of theworld’s population, and its
track record in carrying out such a feat has so far
proven successful. The country has long resorted
towhat many refer to as a self-sufficiency strategy
by growingmost of the crops it needs and importing relatively
little in terms of food grains from overseas. In 2013, China’s
grainproduction reached600million tons and food imports
increased. In the same year, China’s grain self-sufficiency rate
stood above 97 percent and cereal imports reached 40million
tons, accounting for less than 2.6 percent of the country’s
total cereal output. But as the Chinese population growsmore
affluent, withpeople demandingmore and higher quality
foodstuffs, and as urbanisation puts a dent in the farming
population, Chinamay now need to adjust its strategy in order
to ensure its future food security.
In its first policy document of 2014, theChinese government
stated that it will continue tomake good use of international
markets for agricultural products in order to complement
domestic supply. With regards to using international markets
RenZhengxiao, Administrator of the State Administration of
Grain, has noted that, “China is a country with a population
of over 1.3billion. Wewill continue to do this and take
responsibility for our role in theworld.”
The issue of whether China can feed itself is probably not
one that many ordinary people concern themselves with. But
at the higher levels of government, efforts are beingmade to
increase China’s food supply and improve food safety, and in
doing so ensure the nation’s food security status for the coming
decades. According to Laura Kam andAlex Pevzner of Kam
Global Strategies andPevzner Greater China Communications
respectively, China faces particular challenges when it comes
to ensuring food security as a result of issues likewater scarcity
(about half of China’s land area is consideredwater scarce
under UN guidelines with just 1,000 cubicmeters per head
each year), arable land scarcity, andwater and soil pollution resulting from
rapid industrialisation.
Furthermore, over the past decade, the incrediblewealth that certain
sections of society have accumulated has put China’s current strategy under
pressure. An approach devoted to improving production yields per hectare for
food grains has allowed the country tomaintain its self-sufficiency strategy.
But increased prosperity has led to an increased demand for income elastic
livestock products and as Jenifer HuangMcBeath and JerryMcBeath point out
in a report on Environmental Change and Food Security inChina, “As Chinese
economic development proceeds, andmore Chinese are able to purchase ‘high
quality’ foods, we can expect that grain sufficiency alonewill be even less good a
measure of food security.”
Richer Chinese people are eating and therefore importingmoremeat, far
more feed grains than before andmore vegetable oils. ProfessorMichiel Keyzer,
Director of the Center forWorld Food Studies at Amsterdam’s VrijeUniversity in
theNetherlands, notes that, “In the future, if Chinese (people) were not eating
animal livestock products, therewould be no problem, (China) could quite easily
be self-sufficient.”
Keyzer adds, “In food grains and vegetables (China) has been self-sufficient
and it will remain so if it wants. But to remain so it will have to impose a serious
environmental policy to counter pollution.”However, Keyzer is confident that
China is not facing a fundamental threat in terms of failing to feed its people
citing a combination of demographic factors that are usually considered to be
negatives for the country. Keyzer notes that due to China’s one-child policy and
its rapidly ageing society, China’s shrinking populationwill alleviate the pressure
to produce huge amounts of food domestically. Meanwhile, Keyzer believes that
Chinawill not become a bigger consumer than it already is because its ageing
populationwill eat less as they grow older. “As China’s society ages, and elderly
people eat less, and particularly lessmeat, the long-term demand formeat will
not be that big,” claims Keyzer.
Clearly, falling back on its ageing population as a safety net formaintaining
food security is not an ideal or viable scenario. Despite its ability to remain
self-sufficient in terms of grain production, Chinawill continue to be import-
dependent formeat, animal feed and vegetable oils for the coming decades.
According to Jenifer HuangMcBeath and JerryMcBeath, China’s self-sufficiency
in corn is expected to decline from 97.4 percent in 2000 to 74 percent in
2020 and for soybeans, the ratio is expected to decrease from 46.1percent
in 2000 to 20.6 percent by 2020. For themarket year 2013-2014, imports
of soybeans rose dramatically as domestic output decreased and demand for
animal feed increased.
How to Feed 1.3Billion
RicherChinese
peopleareeating
and therefore
importingmoremeat,
farmore feedgrains
thanbeforeandmore
vegetableoils.
“
